Fertility and Economic Progress

Years ago I was dumfounded by an economist friend, (not Casey Mulligan who is referenced in this week’s Economist) when he argued that having more people in overpopulated Bangladesh was good. He concluded this believing that if there were more people there would be more innovators. At the time Bangladesh, a country the size of Wisconsin had about 90 million people. It was considered a population emergency.

This was of course during the period when our own government undermined population control efforts (BCP’s, education and such).

Now Bangladesh is approaching 150 million people, and these has been little change in poverty, landlessness, and economic well being–except for the sliver of well to do people at the top who always seem to benefit.

In any case this week’s Economist addresses demographic and concludes:

  • “And falling fertility is a boon for what it makes possible, which is economic growth. Demography used to be thought of as neutral for growth. But that was because, until the 1990s, there were few developing countries with records of declining fertility and rising incomes. Now there are dozens and they show that as countries move from large families and poverty into wealth and ageing they pass through a Goldilocks period: a generation or two in which fertility is neither too high nor too low and in which there are few dependent children, few dependent grandparents—and a bulge of adults in the middle who, if conditions are right, make the factories hum. For countries in demographic transition, the fall to replacement fertility is a unique and precious opportunity.”

Medicynical note: I can’t resist pointing out the devastation of ignoring population growth for the Reagan/Bush/Bush years. And also take the opportunity to point out that these same people are now downplaying the impact of global warming on civilization. Could they be wrong yet again!


Republican Health Plan????? The Shell Game Continues

Boehner, after months of foot dragging revealed his comprehensive plan to reform health insurance:

  • Number one: let families and businesses buy health insurance across state lines.
  • Number two: allow individuals, small businesses, and trade associations to pool together and acquire health insurance at lower prices, the same way large corporations and labor unions do.
  • Number three: give states the tools to create their own innovative reforms that lower health care costs.
  • Number four: end junk lawsuits that contribute to higher health care costs by increasing the number of tests and procedures that physicians sometimes order not because they think it’s good medicine, but because they are afraid of being sued.

Number 1: What does it mean to allow insurers to sell coverage “across state lines?”

Insurers could sell their products to Americans in any state. The insurer would have to follow the rules and regulations in the state where it is based or “domiciled” — not the rules of the state where the consumer or policyholder lives. Allowing the state laws chosen by the insurer rather than the laws of the state where the consumer lives to govern health insurance regulation is what makes this policy so controversial.

  • Premiums? Health insurance premiums may decrease for many young, healthy individuals. Yet, premiums would like go up for many other Americans, especially those people with health conditions or individuals who prefer comprehensive insurance policies.
  • Benefit Mandates? Most benefit mandates would be eliminated by an across state lines proposal. In fact, selling health insurance across state lines would eliminate any guarantee that important benefit mandates like maternity care would be included in insurance packages in the future. Consumers would get little in exchange — overwhelming evidence shows that benefit mandates per se are not why health insurance costs so much.
  • Access to Coverage? Many people would find it more difficult to access health insurance if health insurance were sold across state lines. This is because there would be fewer guaranteed issue policies and because insurers would have an increased incentive to deny people coverage and charge people more based on their health history.

Medicynical note: Any plan that doesn’t mandate use of community ratings rather than individual ratings is a waste of time and money. It’s tantamount to licensing insurers to charge those with illness more, which is no different from what we have now.


Number two: What does it mean to   “allow individuals, small businesses, and trade associations to pool together and acquire health insurance at lower prices, the same way large corporations and labor unions do.”

Medicynical Note: This is a revolutionary (sic) idea that………..is already available. The problem is that individuals with illness wanting to join such a group are not allowed entry, or charged so much that they can’t afford insurance–which is of course the problem with our current non-system. Insurers don’t want high risk sick people, in their pools. Guess who gets to pay for their care?

This is yet another great republican idea that doesn’t work out of the box. Now if they were to propose that such groups should accept all comers and that community ratings rather than individual ratings would apply the approach might be useful. As is, it’s another smoke screen.

Number three: What does it mean to: give states the tools to create their own innovative reforms that lower health care costs.”

Medicynical Note:  What does that mean?  It’s what my high school teacher called a glittering generality.  Details NONE!!

Number four: “end junk lawsuits that contribute to higher health care costs by increasing the number of tests and procedures that physicians sometimes order not because they think its good medicine, but because they are afraid of being sued.”

Medicynical note: What about valid lawsuits? This approach has not worked to decrease utilization or costs in states where it’s been tried. See Texas for example. I have no objection to fewer lawsuits simply to decrease the physician’s infinite personal liability. But there is no evidence doing this will decrease costs to a significant degree and make health insurance more efficient, available or affordable.
The emperor has no clothes, the republican health plan is not a plan.


Income Down, Poverty and Health Care costs up


Medicynical Note: Meanwhile our health care costs increase by 7-10% a year. Think they are related?


Medical Bankruptcy

I’m not sure what a medical bankruptcy is but it has been reported that 60% of people filing in the U.S. cite medical expenses as part of their problem.

See this for more info:


Inspired Alternative Nonsense–Bioidenticals

An editor’s note in an article on bio-identical medication/supplements says it best:

  • “Ten years and $2.5 billion in research have found no cures from alternative medicine. Yet these mostly unproven treatments are now mainstream and used by more than a third of all Americans.”

Medicynical Note: There is evidence in a few instances that supplements may make things worse.

The article goes on to note;

  • “Alternative remedies are especially popular with upscale, educated women who like to research and find their own solutions to medical problems. They like the idea of personalized treatments versus off-the-shelf prescription drugs. However, instead of a safer option, they are getting products of unknown risk that still contain the estrogen many of them fear, women’s health experts say. “

Medicynical note: Billions of dollars are wasted each year on nonsense like bio-identicals. The bottom line is that these in-vogue substitutes often contain the same type medication as the regular product with the same risk, under the guise of a “safe” alternative. We are a quite amazing people.


One problem with Health Reform–Big Pharma

The fastest growing expense for health insurers is drug costs. We use more drugs and pay more than any other place in the world.

New drugs for treating cancer were in the hundreds of dollars/treatment in the 70’s and early 80’s. Now these drugs cost two orders of magnitude more (upwards of $10,000/month) without inducing cures or lengthy remissions in most situations.

You might ask well why then are people with cancer living longer. Isn’t this from the expensive treatments we’re paying for? No!

We are now diagnosing disease earlier through aggressive screening programs. This introduces what is called lead time bias. Which means people will live longer, in part, because of the difference in survival time between earlier diagnosed disease and a more extensive later disease. This “survival” benefit accrues without any treatment.

The second factor is that disease diagnosed earlier may be more curable. That is, a smaller more localized disease is more likely to be cured than a later advanced disease. Furthermore, many of these early tumors, counted in the survival statistics, are inherently benign in behavior and would never threaten the life of the patient.

Medicynical Note: Meanwhile we pay more, get modest benefits and the drug companies love it. See this in Time magazine.


Illegitimus Non Carborundum

Medicynical Note:  I’m not sure whether the public option will eliminate the conflicts of interest, inefficiency, lack of access and cost gouging but it will be a start.

Other People’s Money=Gaming the Health Care (Non) System

More on our dysfunctional health care in This American Life–Other People’s Money.

Medicynical Note: It’s hard to believe that we allow such gaming of health care. Is it any wonder we pay twice as much. It’s the best system for stock holders, drug suppliers but not for patients.


Factory Medicine–Piecework for Insurers

In his review of Carrying the Heart and The Deadly Dinner Party and Other Medical Detective Stories(NY Review of Books November 5, 2009) Jerome Groopman catches the desperation of modern medicine, a proud profession that has evolved into a money generating soulless machine.

  • “But only recently has medical care been recast in our society as if it took place in a factory, with doctors and nurses as shift workers, laboring on an assembly line of the ill. The new people in charge, many with degrees in management economics, believe that care should be configured as a commodity, its contents reduced to equations, all of its dimensions measured and priced, all patient choices formulated as retail purchases. The experience of illness is being stripped of its symbolism and meaning, emptied of feeling and conflict. The new era rightly embraces science but wrongly relinquishes the soul.”

Medicynical Note: Doctors do piecework for insurers. Whether that changes in a modified health care system is doubtful.

For the most part our non-system of care has lost whatever relationship there was between doctors and patients and replaced it with a hucksterish carnival sideshow atmosphere–step right up here young man we have a medicine, procedure, rejuvenant that will change your life and only run the risk of a 4 hour erection.


More is Less

This American Life is doing two programs on health care. The first is a rather depressing look at over utilization and cost containment. Check it out.