Herd Immunity…….nowhere near

With a disease like this, you probably need somewhere on the order of 60% or more people to have immunity in order to prevent an epidemic. Right now, if we’re at less than 5%; you would need at least ten- to twelve-fold that level. The only way to get there is to vaccinate people or else have horrific transmissions, and we can’t do the latter. So we’re going to have to continue some social distancing efforts.”

Medicynical note: There doesn’t appear to be a large number of asymptomatic people testing positive. That means, if true, that we’ll need a vaccine to safely reach the point where herd immunity offers protection. Not good news as a safe effective vaccine may be very difficult to develop. The covid-19 infection is unlikely to go away like “magic”—we tried that strategy already.

It Was Trump……..He Was Warned!

The US pandemic response teams in the NSC AND CDC were fired by Trump in 2018. In June 2019 Trump removed the embedded US CDC scientist from the Chinese CDC. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/ )

Dec. 31, 2019: WHO says mysterious pneumonia sickening dozens in China

“Health authorities in China confirm that dozens of people in Wuhan, China, are being treated for pneumonia from an unknown source. Many of those sickened had visited a live animal market in Wuhan, but authorities say there is no evidence of the virus spreading from person to person.”

Trump ignored the warnings.

“Jan. 1: The CDC begins developing reports for the Department of Health and Human Services about the situation.”


“Jan. 3: A Chinese official officially informs CDC Director Robert Redfield of the outbreak of a respiratory illness in the city of Wuhan. Redfield later relays the information to HHS Secretary Alex Azar, and Azar informs the White House National Security Council.”


“Early January: Intelligence officials begin offering ominous, classified warnings about the virus to Trump in the President’s Daily Brief. The warnings will persist into February.”


“Jan. 8: The CDC issues its first public warning about the outbreak in China, saying that it is monitoring the situation and that people should take precautions when traveling to Wuhan.”


“Mid-January: Assistant HHS Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec instructs subordinates to make contingency plans for using the Defense Production Act, which allows the federal government to compel the production of certain materials in a crisis.”


“Jan. 17: The CDC begins monitoring major airports for passengers arriving from China.”

“Jan. 18: Azar, who had been trying to speak to Trump about the virus, is finally able to meet with him. Before Azar can begin talking about the virus, though, Trump interjects to ask him about a federal crackdown on vaping.”


“Jan. 21: The first confirmed coronavirus case arrives in the United States, in Seattle.”


“Jan. 22: Trump makes his first comments about the coronavirus, saying he is not concerned about a pandemic. “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. … It’s going to be just fine.””

Medicynical note: Trump’s denial of the seriousness of covid-19 infections continued until March. Yes the WHO could have done better, but Trump carelessly disregarded his own intelligence briefings in January and February, as well as warnings from the CDC and NIH.

It should be noted that several congresspeople sold millions in stocks after being briefed on the seriousness of the problem…while Trump slept at the wheel.

The problem wasn’t WHO………

Trump is Wrong………Again

“GIVEN THE gravity of the global pandemic, President Trump and Republicans have picked an inopportune momentto hector the World Health Organization, a United Nations agency, by threatening a loss of funding from the United States. The WHO has made mistakes in this outbreak and others, but it has also provided valuable guidance, resources and action. Mr. Trump and his GOP pals are looking for scapegoats to distract attention from the administration’s bungling.”

 

“At a White House briefing, Mr. Trump declared, “We’re going to put a hold on money spent to the WHO. We’re going to put a very powerful hold on it.” Then he said, “We’re going to look at it.” He said on Twitter, “The W.H.O. really blew it. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be giving that a good look.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James E. Risch (R-Idaho) declared the WHO “has become a political puppet of the Chinese government” and called for an investigation.”

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Medicynical Note:  Having gutted the U.S. Government’s pandemic early recognition capabilities in the NSC and CDC and it’s embedded staff with the Chinese CDC,  Mr. Trump is blaming the WHO for slow recognition of the epidemic in China.  He spins it as WHO is somehow favoring China.  It’s no great surprise that it was the Taiwanese who decided that this was the way to spin this issue.

In fact the WHO was on the epidemic and calling attention to it while Trump was calling it a media hoax; saying it would go away like a miracle; and that it would disappear in April.  Never in history has a President been so wrong about something as obvious as a spreading epidemic.  He ignored his own health experts as well.

And yes, his response to the epidemic has been slow rolling disaster.  Who is responsible?  Not Trump. He has famously declared he was not responsible at all for the testing failure.  He designated Pence to, ostensibly, be in charge of the government’s response  and then within two weeks allowed the creation of two or three (no one really knows) other task forces,  none of which has ultimate authority.  That seemingly rests on the whim of you know who.  It’s apparent that Trump is torn, he doesn’t think it’s the Federal Government’s job to protect it’s citizens from a pandemic saying at times it the state’s problem but at other times is driven to inappropriately intervene. 

So we have 50 states scurrying helter skelter trying to figure out how best to get supplies and shelter their citizens.   They find themselves in a competition with the several U.S. task forces for equipment and receive almost daily conflicting advice on how to respond.  It would be humorous if not so tragic that this man, who bankrupted 5 businesses and has been found more or less guilty of fraud in regard to his personal charity and the so-called Trump University, is in charge of the response to the largest systemic health threat in 100 years. 

Trump’s Great Concern…..Corporate Profits and Congressmen’s Stock Portfolios

The coronavirus presented DuPont, the chemical giant based here, with a golden business opportunity.In January, the company convened a crisis team to figure out how to ramp up global production of personal protective equipment, including suits made out of its patented Tyvek material, which normally sell for about $5 apiece to hospitals. By early March, as the disease began to spread in the United States, DuPont’s factory in Richmond, Virginia, was cranking out Tyvek.”

And

Then DuPont sold 60 percent of the protective gear to Uncle Sam while keeping 40 percent for its other customers. The company refused to say how much the Department of Health and Human Services paid for 450,000 suits, but a spokesperson noted that they sell for up to $15 each, three times the amount they fetched before the virus pandemic.

And

“The two priorities that officials say have not been sacrificed by Trump or his supply chain task force, dubbed “the children” inside FEMA’s headquarters, are private profit and the ability of the White House to choose where supplies go.”

Medicynical note: There were people aware of the risk of the covid-19 epidemic during the period when Trump, Hanrity and a sad sack Medal of Freedom recipient were engaging in magical thinking.

Congressmen (Senators and Representatives) briefed on the epidemic in December and January used their insider information to make strategic lucrative stock sales and purchases.

Some in industry took steps to take advantage of the predicted need for medical equipment and protective gear. They raised prices and worked the government to control the market and limit competition.

And Trump and Jared? Not surprisingly they’re facilitating.

But hey, that’s capitalism. The idea is to MAKE MONEY. Capitalize on insider info? Of course if you can get away with it!

Find a market weakness and take advantage for the benefit of stockholders? Sure! Always work toward a monopoly.

Fair competition? Really? The core idea of capitalism is to work to control……everything.

Sick people? Protecting health care providers? Concern about other producers? Not really an issue……at all.

Trouble in Paradise–Ecuador and Covid-19

CALI, Colombia—Images coming out of  Guayaquil,a port city on Ecuador’s Pacific coast, are as grim as anything the world has seen since the COVID-19 pandemic began.”

“”We are living in hell.”— Blanca Moncada, journalist for El Diario Expresso in Guayquil”

“As the death toll has overwhelmed hospitals and morgues, bodies have been abandoned in the streets or left to decay in houses, cargo trailers, and parking lots. The smell of the exposed corpses sticks like bile in the throat, and flocks of vultures wheel above the city waiting their chance to feed on human carrion.”

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Medicynical Note:  Terrible things happening in Ecuador and other countries with limited health care facilities.  Not that we’re doing so well here.

The point is however, that Guayaquil is located near the equator with daily temperatures in the 90’s.  Those who engaged in Trumpian magical thinking and assumed that covid-19 would go away in warm weather may be terribly wrong.

Trump: I take No Responsibility…….he doesn’t

“Everyone says you are supposed to be on your own,” Camacho said, noting Trump’s repeated admonition that states and local health systems cannot rely on Washington for supplies. “Then to have this happen, you just sit there wondering what else you can do. You can’t fight the federal government.”

Medicynical note: Organization? There is none. No one is responsible. VOTE

Hypocrisy Reigns– Scalia Subverts Employee Covid–19 Protections

The worst labor secretary ever. No concern about corporations benefitting unduly but workers, cut them where it hurts. Where did they dig up this loser?? Oh, oh, it’s a genetic defect.

“In recent days, Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, who has expressed concerns about unemployment insurance being too generous, has used his department’s authority over new laws enacted by Congress to limit who qualifies for joblessness assistance and to make it easier for small businesses not to pay family leave benefits. The new rules make it more difficult for gig workers such as Uber and Lyft drivers to get benefits, while making it easier for some companies to avoid paying their workers coronavirus-related sick and family leave.”

Medicynical note: A proud Trump appointee works hard to screw unemployed workers during the covid-19 epidemic. Such actions are immoral but consistent with conservative ideology. Hard to believe but true. VOTE

Covid-19 in California Last Fall is Trumpian (FAKE)

There are reports that there are large numbers of immune people in California who were infected last fall creating a cohort with herd immunity………that report is REALLY REALLY FAKE.

” “There is zero probability [SARS-CoV-2] was circulating in fall 2019,” tweeted Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutch Cancer Research Center, who has been tracking the SARS-CoV-2’s genetic code as it has spread. Allison Black, a genomic epidemiologist working in Bedford’s lab, says this is apparent from researchers’ data. As the virus spreads, it also mutates, much like the way words change in a game of Telephone. By sequencing the virus’s genome from different individual samples, researchers can track strains of coronavirus back to its origins. They have been continually updating their findings on Nextstrain. (In case you’re wondering, the strains have nothing to do with severity of illness. They’re simply a way to track the virus’s mutations over time.)”

“Richard Neher, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland, told the Scientist that Nextstrain researchers’ work has tracked the virus back to a single source “somewhere between mid-November and early December,” which then spread in China. The earliest cases in the U.S. appeared in January 2020, according to Nextstrain’s sequencing work. Washington state, where the first known COVID-19 case in the U.S. was identified, has at least six strains. A similar analysis of California’s coronavirus cases—which has yet to be peer reviewed—identified at least eight strains in the state, suggesting transmission from Washington state, New York, Europe, and China.”

It ain’t over Until it’s Over

Singapore and Hongkong are examples at this early time in the epidemic, of a recrudescence of cases.

“Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan — once heralded for early successes in battling the pandemic — are now confronting a new wave of coronavirus cases, largely fueled by infections coming from elsewhere. Singapore is also seeing a rise in local transmissions, with more than 400 new cases in the past week that have been linked to migrant worker dormitories.”

The Art of the Deal……

Trump pays more.

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“The Dutch company that received millions of taxpayer dollars to develop an affordable ventilator for pandemics but never delivered them has struck a much more lucrative deal with the federal government to make 43,000 ventilators at four times the price.”

“The US Department of Health and Human Services announced Wednesday that it plans to pay Royal Philips N.V. $646.7 million for the new ventilators—paying more than $15,000 each. The first 2,500 units are to arrive before the end of May, HHS said, and the rest by the end of December.”

“Philips refused to say which model of ventilator the government was buying. But in response to questions from ProPublica, HHS officials said the government is purchasing the Trilogy EV300, the more expensive version of the ventilator that was developed with federal funds.”

“The deal is a striking departure from the federal contract Philips’ Respironics division signed in September to produce 10,000 ventilators for the Strategic National Stockpile at a cost of $3,280 each.”

Medicynical note:  The dealmake who bankrupted five companies and their shareholders is at it again.  He’s running the government like his businesses. 

His secret is hiring and listening to the uninvormed and incompetent.

Hard to say if we will ever recover.